The Unsuccessful Bid to Host Cop31 Looks Chaotic – But It May In Fact Be the Optimal Outcome Achievable

Well. From one perspective, Australia's long-running bid to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to put on the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures truly desired the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries feared a summit hindered from the top if his administration managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and achieve an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.